http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDVJ60ZELTw
Kyle Leighton of TalkingPointsMemo’s PollTracker gives us some insights into the polls following Mitt Romney’s nomination at the Republican National Convention.
The main theme is that nothing is really going to change. Despite all the mud slinging, fibs, fabrications, misquoting, and pandering, the battle lines seem to be set.
Conventions have historically been massive pep rallies, whipping their members into a passionate frenzy going into the last leg of the election. This energy typically gives the respective party a bump (if only temporary) in the polls. But coming out of the RNC and going into the DNC we’re seeing none of that.
Even the much hyped vice presidential pick of Paul Ryan lead only to a “micro bump” for Romney in the polls.
We can draw from this that in a season of polarized parties the trenches have been dug. We won’t see much movement across no-man’s-land for the remainder of the campaign.
But as Mr. Leighton points out, it’s the internal poll numbers that are the most interesting and perhaps the most important.
This election may come down to who has the more energized and active base of supporters.
In 2008 President Obama famously used a successful “ground game” mobilizing a massive network of fans to get out voters. The Republicans this year are trying to do the same.
Who of the candidates can rally his supporters just a little more than his opponent will likely be the winner in this close contest.