The Data Science Team recently released its set of predictions for the 6-year graduation probabilities of the 2020 Freshman cohort. Below is a snapshot of the current cohort's predictions, in blue, with the 2019 Freshman cohort's predictions, in red. 

The vertical axis represents the end of 2nd semester prediction probability; the horizontal axis is the end of the 3rd semester prediction. 

The black diagonal line indicates the point on the graph at which the second semester and third semester predictions are equal. If a dot, representing an individual student, rests on the line there was no change in the student's predicted probability of graduating between their second and third semester. Points above the line mean a student's predicted 6-year graduation probability decreased from semester 2 to semester 3. 

The group of students above the line, particularly in the Moderate and Low probability color bands, are of concern as their predicted probabilities of graduation have declined over their last two completed semesters. 

The 2020 Freshman cohort was the first freshman class during COVID and one of the concerns is the effect COVID may have on student performance in later semesters. From the predictions chart there seems to be reasons for optimism. Looking at the dispersion of points, there is a greater concentration of students in the High and Very High likelihood buckets compared to the 2019 cohort, as shown by the clustering of blue dots in the upper right corner of the chart. 

However, some concern may remain. Students whose predictions fall in the Low and Moderate buckets have experienced sharper declines in predicted likelihood to graduate than students from the 2019 cohort (because the blue dots, 2020 cohort, are much further above the diagonal line than the red dots, 2019 cohort). 

The diagram we've shown in this post is produced by a tool developed by the Data Science Team.  The tool allows staff with broad student success responsibilities to identify groups of students who may need additional support to achieve their goals.  The tool is available at analytics.umbc.edu in the student success section.  Access to it requires permission.  

(NOTE: Please join us Friday, March 18th from 12-1pm, for the fourth in our series of our Spring 2022 Data Science Workshops. This predictive model will be the topic of the session. Go to this link - https://my3.my.umbc.edu/groups/instructional-technology/events/101281 to register)

Len Mancini

Data Scientist and Statistical Specialist

Dear UMBC Community,

It is with mixed emotions that I share with you that Valerie Thomas has announced her intention to retire effective June 30, 2022. Since joining UMBC in 2002, Valerie has led UMBC’s Human Resources organization with integrity, empathy, and excellence. She has helped build and integrate campus-wide systems and policies, established an open and honest dialogue with shared governance units, and negotiated on behalf of the University and its people with patience, an open mind, and a consensus-building mind-set. Valerie is particularly appreciated for building a strong human resources team that partners with the campus community and celebrates the excellence of our faculty and staff with energy, enthusiasm, and creativity.

Valerie is completing more than 40 years of service with University System of Maryland (USM) institutions. She started her higher education career in 1979 as a temporary employee working for Dr. Freeman A. Hrabowski, then Dean of Arts and Sciences at Coppin State College. Valerie went on to other opportunities at Coppin State, including as Assistant to the Dean of the Lower Division and Assistant to the Vice President for Academic Affairs, and 10 years as head of Human Resources. With her 20 years at UMBC, Valerie is the longest-serving head of HR in the University's history.

President Hrabowski, her original supervisor and mentor notes, “Valerie has always emphasized the ‘human’ in human resources. Her ability to navigate the complex relationships of a campus community has earned her a stellar reputation as a fair, caring, understanding, and reliable colleague. Most of all, she has focused on establishing and nurturing relationships, inspiring those who interact with her to accomplish more than they thought possible.”

As our senior HR leader, Valerie is responsible for talent acquisition, benefits, classification and compensation, organization development and workplace learning, employee relations, information management, staff recognition, wellness, and payroll. She has also been a staunch advocate for work/life balance, encouraging the campus to adopt alternative work arrangements to support employees and allow for more accommodations. Today, UMBC is recognized as one of the most family-friendly institutions in work/life balance policies for faculty and staff. UMBC has also been recognized for 12 years running by the Chronicle of Higher Education for being one of the nation’s “Great Colleges to Work For,” in large part due to Valerie's work.

Valerie not only has a heart for UMBC, but also serves many professional and civic organizations. She is a long-standing member of the College and University Professional Association, the Society for Human Resources Management, Sigma Gamma Rho Sorority, Inc., and the National Coalition of 100 Black Women. Her tireless service to these organizations has earned her awards and accolades from each.

Through her dedication to exceptional service to the campus community, Valerie has transformed the Human Resources department into a model for institutional excellence. We will begin searching for the University’s next Chief Human Resources Officer immediately to continue this important work. The University has retained Koya Partners to assist with this search; more updates will be forthcoming.

I am immensely grateful to Valerie for all that she has accomplished at UMBC. Please join me in wishing her happiness and good health during her much deserved retirement.

Kathy L. Dettloff, Vice President for Administration and Finance