Check Out Dr. Anson's Latest Article in The Conversation

Mon, 08 Aug 2022 11:10:04 -0400

Trump-endorsed candidates would generally win even without his support, and that's usually the case with all political endorsements.

Over the past few months, many journalists and pundits have credited the power of Donald Trump's endorsements with determining the winners of Republican primaries.

Trump has made 203 candidate endorsements in the 2022 election cycle so far, targeting state, congressional, gubernatorial and even local races.

Based on the numbers alone, receiving a "Trump bump" seems like a surefire way to win an election. So far, 94% of Trump's favored candidates have won their Republican primaries.

But as a political scientist who studies voting and public opinion, I have my doubts about the true power of Trump's endorsements. Instead, it is more likely that most of the candidates Trump has chosen to endorse were already on track to win their respective races.