In the December 2014 issue of AFCEA’s SIGNAL Magazine, CSEE’s Dr. Rick Forno comments on the likelihood of a destructive cyberattack on critical American infrastructure. He was one of several experts discussing US Cyber Command’s worry about such potential incidents and how it might respond.

He believes a major cyber attack against critical infrastructure is more likely from a rogue terrorist or criminal group than a nation-state. However, he says that although the possibility for a nation-state to launch attacks remains a valid concern, the probability of such an event remains fairly low. Moreover, Forno points out that a destructive attack could hinder an adversary’s own operations. “You can’t collect intelligence on an enemy or communicate if the Internet is down,” he says. “That may play into a nation-state’s calculus about what type of attack they might employ in a given situation.”